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World Economy Review - January 2016The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast of global economic growth over the next two years amid the deepening slowdown in emerging markets and a continued slump in oil prices. The IMF now projects the world economy will grow 3.4 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2017. That pace would be faster than last year, but the projections are 0.2 percentage points lower than the IMF estimated in the fall — a sign that the global recovery is still struggling to build momentum. “Growth expectations seem to fall consistently,” said Maury Obstfeld, economic counsellor at the IMF. “I think the year coming is going to be a year of great challenges.” China officially announced that its growth rate had slowed to 6.9 percent in 2015, the slowest pace in a quarter century. The IMF forecast that growth in China will further slow to 6.3 percent this year and fall to 6 percent in 2017 - below Beijing`s official target for the pace of expansion. Many analysts are skeptical of the country`s estimates of growth, and some fear its economy is in much worse shape than officials are willing to acknowledge. China`s boom had been built on exporting its low-priced goods around the world, driving domestic investment in factories, equipment and infrastructure.

China`s seemingly insatiable demand for raw materials also helped buoy resource-rich countries such as Brazil and Zambia. Now the tide is turning. Chinese exports face stiff price competition from other Asian countries at the same time that worldwide demand is sagging. Beijing is attempting to shift the country`s economic engine from manufacturing and trade to consumer spending, but the adjustment is slow and painful. And lately, investors have begun to question whether officials are up to the challenge. “We don`t see a big change in fundamentals in China … but the markets are certainly very spooked by small events that they find very hard to interpret,” Obstfeld said. The slowdown in China is spilling over to several key emerging markets, which had ridden Beijing`s coattails to prosperity during the boom. The IMF pointed to political upheaval and a sharper contraction than expected in Brazil as a key factor behind the downgraded global forecast.

Meanwhile, the IMF said it expects oil prices to remain “low for long.” The price of Brent crude oil on international markets recently fell below $30 a barrel, a psychologically important benchmark. Many analysts also expect Iran to ramp up production after U. S. sanctions were lifted this weekend, adding to the global supply glut and holding back prices. Emerging markets had supported much of the growth in the world economy following the 2008 financial crisis. But as they slow down, countries such as the United States and those in Europe lack the momentum to pick up the slack. The IMF estimates that advanced economies will grow a modest 2.1 percent this year, compared to the 4.3 percent rate of growth in emerging markets. The IMF also reduced its estimate for U. S. growth, projecting it will plateau over the next two years at 2.6 percent.

The Federal Reserve recently began withdrawing its support for America`s economy by raising interest rates. The move was intended to signal its confidence in the resilience of the recovery, but the IMF suggested the economy may not be as robust as hoped. “We`re not as optimistic about a pickup in U. S. growth,” Obstfeld said. The U. S. economy only grew 0.7% between October and December. It`s the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2015, when the economy grew at a 0.6% pace as parts of the country battled with blizzards and businesses shutting down. For the year, the U. S. economy grew 2.4% in 2015, matching the gains made in 2014.

The slowdown in the last three months of 2015 is more worrisome. A global economic slowdown appears to be finally weighing heavily on the American economy. Despite a strong job market, other signs point to slowing growth. American manufacturing, which makes up 10% of the economy, is in a recession and the industry`s key index, ISM, has declined for six straight months. Consumer spending was negative or flat for seven out of 12 months last year. U. S. industrial production dropped for the third straight month in December as utilities reduced output amid unusually warm weather and energy companies cut back in the face of falling oil prices. Industrial production, which includes manufacturing, mining and utilities, contracted 0.4 percent after retreating a revised 0.9 percent the previous month, the Federal Reserve reported.

American industry has struggled in recent months even as the overall economy appears solid. The November decline was the biggest drop since May 2009. Output fell 0.2 percent in October and was flat in September; the Fed originally reported that production fell in September. Warm weather pushed utility output down 2 percent in December on top of a 5 percent drop in November. Mining production, which includes oil drilling, fell 0.8 percent.

That was the fourth straight monthly drop. Manufacturing production slid 0.1 percent after falling 0.1 percent in November. U. S. factories have been hurt by weakening economies overseas and a strong dollar that makes American-made products more expensive in foreign markets. The U. S. trade deficit increased to $43.4 billion in December last year, marking a 2.8 percent rise compared to the previous month, the U. S. Department of Commerce`s Bureau of Economic Analysis said. The goods and services deficit was up $1.1 billion in December 2015 from $42.2 billion in November 2015, which was revised down from $42.4 billion. “December exports were $181.5 billion, $0.5 billion less than November exports. December imports were $224.9 billion, up $0.6 billion from November,” said the Bureau of Economic Analysis in a statement. The market expectation for trade deficit was to be $43.2 billion for December 2015. U. S. consumer prices unexpectedly fell in December as the cost of energy goods dropped and services rose moderately, a trend that if sustained suggests inflation could be slow to rise toward the Federal Reserve`s target.

The Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index slipped 0.1 percent after being unchanged in November. Despite the drop last month, the CPI increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months through December, the biggest increase in a year. The rise followed a 0.5 percent gain in November. The year-over-year inflation rate is rising as the oil price-driven weak readings in 2015 drop out of the calculation. The boost from the so-called base effects could, however, be limited by lower oil prices, which are near 12-year lows. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI unchanged last month and rising 0.8 percent from a year ago. The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, edged up 0.1 percent after rising 0.2 percent for three straight months.

In the 12 months through December, the core CPI rose 2.1 percent, the largest gain since July 2012, after climbing 2.0 percent in November. U. S. employment gains slowed more than expected in January as the boost to hiring from unseasonably mild weather faded, but surging wages and an unemployment rate at an eight-year low suggested the labor market recovery remains firm. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.9 percent, the lowest since February 2008, the Labor Department said. Data for November and December was revised to show 2,000 fewer jobs created than previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast employment increasing by 190,000 in January and the jobless rate steady at 5 percent. In November 2015 compared with October 2015, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.7% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.6% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In October 2015 industrial production rose by 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. In November 2015 compared with November 2014, industrial production increased by 1.1% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU28. The decrease of 0.7% in industrial production in the euro area in November 2015, compared with October 2015, is due to production of energy falling by 4.3%, capital goods by 1.9% and durable consumer goods by 1.0%, while production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.1% and intermediate goods by 0.7%. In the EU28, the decrease of 0.6% is due to production of energy falling by 3.5%, capital goods by 1.3%, durable consumer goods by 0.3% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.1%, while production of intermediate goods rose by 0.5%. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in industrial production were registered in Portugal (-4.9%), Malta (-3.7%), the Netherlands (-3.1%), Estonia and Lithuania (both -2.6%), and the highest increases in Greece (+3.3%) and Slovakia (+1.9%). The increase of 1.1% in industrial production in the euro area in November 2015, compared with November 2014, is due to production of intermediate goods rising by 2.1%, durable consumer goods by 1.7% and both capital goods and non-durable consumer goods by 1.2%, while production of energy fell by 2.8%. In the EU28, the increase of 1.4% is due to production of capital goods rising by 2.0%, intermediate goods by 1.8%, durable consumer goods by 1.7% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.8%, while production of energy fell by 1.2%. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in industrial production were registered in Ireland (+14.2%), Slovakia (+11.9%) and Hungary (+7.1%), and the largest decreases in the Netherlands (-8.0%) and Estonia (-6.2%). The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in November 2015 was €173.5 billion, an increase of 6% compared with November 2014 (€163.6 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €149.9 bn, a rise of 5% compared with November 2014 (€143.5 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a €23.6 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in November 2015, compared with +€20.1 bn in November 2014.

Intra-euro area trade rose to €145.7 bn in November 2015, up by 5% compared with November 2014. These data are released by Eurostat. The first estimate for extra-EU28 exports of goods in November 2015 was €148.2 billion, up by 2% compared with November 2014 (€145.6 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €142.4 bn, up by 5% compared with November 2014 (€136.1 bn). As a result, the EU28 recorded a €5.9 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in November 2015, compared with +€9.5 bn in November 2014. Intra-EU28 trade rose to €268.3 bn in November 2015, +7% compared with November 2014.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 0.4% in January 2016, up from 0.2% in December 2015, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, services is expected to have the highest annual rate in January (1.2%, compared with 1.1% in December), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (1.1%, compared with 1.2% in December), non-energy industrial goods (0.7%, compared with 0.5% in December) and energy (-5.3%, compared with -5.8% in December). The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 10.4% in December 2015, down from 10.5% in November 2015, and from 11.4% in December 2014. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since September 2011. The EU28 unemployment rate was 9.0% in December 2015, stable compared to November 2015, and down from 9.9% in December 2014.

This is the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since June 2009. These figures are published by Eurostat. Eurostat estimates that 21.944 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 16.750 million were in the euro area, were unemployed in December 2015. Compared with November 2015, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 52 000 in the EU28 and by 49 000 in the euro area.

Compared with December 2014, unemployment fell by 2.026 million in the EU28 and by 1.501 million in the euro area. Industrial production in Japan stumbled a seasonally adjusted 1.4 percent on month in December, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said - sliding for the second straight month. That missed forecasts for a fall of 0.3 percent following the 0.9 percent decline in November. On a yearly basis, industrial production slipped 1.6 percent - also missing expectations for a decline of 0.6 percent following the 1.7 percent gain in the previous month. According to the Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing, production is expected to increase 7.6 percent in January and decrease 4.1 percent in February.

Japan`s trade deficit fell to its lowest level in four years in 2015, the Finance Ministry reported, as import costs dropped thanks to the collapse in oil prices. Preliminary figures show exports rose 3.5 percent in 2015 from the year before, while imports dropped 8.7 percent. The deficit was 2.83 trillion yen compared with a record 12.8 trillion yen deficit in 2014. The December trade surplus of 140.2 billion yen ($1.2 billion) compared with a deficit of 379.7 billion yen in November and a deficit of 665.6 billion yen in December 2014. Japan`s exports have been weakening over the past year, as China`s economy has slowed. After rising 7.9 percent in January-June over the same period the year before, exports rose a scant 0.6 percent in July-December.

Exports to China fell 1.1 percent in 2015, to 13.2 trillion yen ($95.8 billion), while exports to the U. S. jumped 11.5 percent to 15.2 trillion yen ($128.6 billion), making the U. S. Japan`s largest export market. Japan`s imports of crude oil, gas and other fuels plunged 43 percent in December to 1.4 trillion yen ($11.8 billion). In 2015, they fell 34 percent, to 18.2 trillion yen ($154 billion). In December, Japan`s exports fell 8 percent from the year before to 6.34 trillion yen ($53.6 billion), while its imports dropped 18 percent to 6.2 trillion yen ($52.5 billion). Exports to China dropped 8.6 percent while exports to the U. S. were 3.4 percent lower than a year earlier. However, exports of cars rose 17.5 percent to 1.1 trillion yen ($9.3 billion).

Japan`s consumer prices increased 0.2 percent in December 2015 from a year earlier, marking the second consecutive monthly rise, the government said. The core consumer price index, excluding volatile fresh food prices, stood at 103.3 against the 2010 base of 100, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said. On an annual bases, consumer prices increased 0.5 percent in 2015 to 103.2 from a year earlier, the data showed, marking the third successive year of price increases, owing, in part, to a consumption tax hike in April 2014. The consumer price index (CPI), not factoring in the effects of the consumption tax increase, was flat in the recording year, the statistics bureau said.

Energy prices in December retreated 11 percent, the government said, with those for gasoline plummeting 17.8 percent and electricity prices down 5.7 percent, in the recording period. Food prices, however, climbed 2.3 percent in the recording period, and prices of TVs also marked a significant increase, jumping 22.4 percent, according to the latest data set. The jobless rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent in December, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said - in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month. The job-to-applicant ratio was 1.27 - touching a 25-year high. That beat expectations for 1.26 and was up from 1.25 in the previous month. The number of employed persons in December was 63.85 million, an increase of 280,000 or 0.4 percent on year. The number of unemployed persons in December was 2.04 million, a decrease of 60,000 or 2.9 percent on year. The decline of Russia`s GDP in 2015 amounted to 3.7%, the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) said, thus confirming its preliminary forecast. The GDP in 2015 at current prices amounted to 80.41 trillion rubles ($1.01 trillion).

According to Rosstat, the largest increase at the end of last year was recorded in agriculture (3.5% yoy), the activities of households (1.4%), mining (1.1%), as well as the field Health and Human Services. services (+ 0.3%). The largest drop was noted in the segment of wholesale and retail trade (-10.1%), construction (-7.5%), manufacturing (-5.5%), hotels and restaurants (-5.2%). The share of final consumption expenditure in the Russia`s GDP at the end of 2015 was 71.6%, which is 0.6 percentage points less than in 2014 (72.2%). This was due to a decrease in the share of household expenditure by 0.6 percentage points - to 52.6% in GDP. In turn, the share of net export in GDP increased by 1.4 percentage points up to 8%. In monetary terms, household expenditures totaled 43.3 trillion rubles ($548.12 bln) against 41.43 trillion rubles ($524.4 bln) last year, state administration - 15.48 trillion ($196.04 bln) against 14.61 trillion rubles ($185.02 bln). Russia`s gross domestic product contracted by 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, in annual terms, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said. Industrial output in Russia shrank 3.4 percent in 2015 for the first time in six years, the Rosstat state statistics service said. The slump, which came as the Russian economy reeled from weak oil prices and drops in the ruble value, was sharper than predicted by the Economic Development Ministry, which expected the industrial output to drop by 3.3 percent in 2015, the RIA Novosti news agency reported. In December, the decline in industrial production reached 4.5 percent year-on-year, the Rosstat data showed. Except for January, industrial output fell in Russia throughout the whole of 2015, with the biggest slump registered in May, when production contracted 5.5 percent.

One of the steepest drops was seen in the manufacturing industry, where output dropped by 5.4 percent in 2015, compared to 2014. Meanwhile, Russia increased its production of food products amid the ban on imports from a number of Western countries. The production of pork increased 12.9 percent in 2015 and cheese production was up 17.1 percent, Rosstat reported. According to estimates from the Economic Development Ministry, the industrial output in 2016 is expected to fall 0.4 percent at an average oil price of $40 per barrel, the Interfax news agency reported. The inflation rate in Russia reached 12.9 percent in 2015, according to the Federal Statistics Service.

This is the worst rate since the global economic crisis in 2008 when annual inflation edged 13.3 percent. Apart from 2008, inflation in Russia has only been this high twice in the last 15 years, in 2001 at 18.8 percent and 2002 at 15.06 percent. Inflation in Russia will climb to 10.5% in 2016 but is expected down to 7.1% in 2017. Along with this, a return to GDP growth is expected by 0.7% in 2016 and by 1.8% in 2017, the UN Development Policy and Analysis Division (DPAD) said in the report titled World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016: Global Economic Outlook (WESP) published on Wednesday, January 20. 05.02.2016 19:10:42



Автор: admin 9-03-2016, 15:06 Комментарии: 0 Просмотров: 14

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