Macroeconomic News

14.07.2008 22:56 Japan`s revised May industrial output up 2.8 pct, slower than initial reading Japan`s industrial output rose by a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent in May from April, slightly slower than the initially expected 2.9 percent rise, the government said on Friday citing revised figures. Shipments rose 2.0 percent in May, also slower than the preliminary reading of a 2.1 percent increase, according to government figures. Inventories rose 0.5 percent, in line with the preliminary reading. The production capacity index for factories and mines stood at 105.8, down 0.1 percentage points from the preceding month, while the seasonally adjusted operating ratio rose 2.2 percentage points to 104.1. 10.07.2008 21:29 Fitch predicts world economic growth will make 2,6% in 2008 Growth rates of global economy in the current year become the lowest for the last fifth anniversary, despite essential growth of the countries with developing economy (emerging markets), and the next 18 months will be for it "times of trouble", is spoken in the message extended on Wednesday on data of report Global Economic Outlook of international agency Fitch Ratings. To so-called emerging markets the countries BRICK (Brazil, Russia, India and China) concern, in particular. As it is marked, reduction of growth rates f economic passes against recession in housing and consumer sectors of the countries with the developed economy.

Under forecasts Fitch, gross national product growth in 2008 will make 1 % in the USA, 1,3 % — in Japan, 1,4 % — to the Great Britain and 1,7 % — in an eurozone. "The economic will worry a time of trouble the next 18 months. In the conditions of movement towards recession in economy of the USA in 2008 Fitch predicts growth at level of 1,3 % in the leading countries with the developed economy (which number includes the USA, the eurozone countries, Japan and the Great Britain), that does not exceed level of 2001", — is spoken in the message. In Fitch notice, that 2001 was "especially weak year for the leading countries with the developed economy when the technological bubble has burst and stagnation in Japan was observed, and exclusively synchronous recession" became the culmination.

Growth of world gross national product in the current year will be above level of 2001, including thanks to economic stability of Brazil observed recently, Russia, India, China and other countries with emerging markets. "At the same time, if to start with the market exchange rate, world economic growth will make 2,6 % that is the weakest significance for the last five years", — ascertain in Fitch. 08.07.2008 20:32 Russia`s GDP could exceed 7.8% in 2008 and 8.3% in H1 2008 Russia`s deputy economic development and trade minister Andrei Klepach said GDP growth could exceed 7.8% in 2008 and 8.3% in H1 2008. The official government forecast calls for GDP to grow by 7.6 percent in the current year. Russia`s GDP growth stood at 7.7% in May and was 8.4% for the first five months of 2008, a deputy economics minister said. "There was a certain slowdown (in May), but we will only be able to speak about a trend after the first half of the year," Andrei Klepach said. As Russia continues to reap the benefits of high world oil prices, consumer price growth has proved to be a major problem for the Russian authorities, who plan to keep inflation within the projected 10.5% in 2008. Meanwhile inflation in June was 1,0% m/m and 15,1% y/y. Last year inflation in Russia stood at 11.9%, up from 9.0% the previous year.

Klepach said the economics ministry had submitted a package of anti-inflationary measures to the government. 03.07.2008 22:04 U. S. Payrolls Down By 62,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate At 5.5% The report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed that the U. S. June nonfarm payrolls declined for a six consecutive month more-than-expected. U. S. payrolls last month fell by 62,000 workers, while the jobless rate remained at a four-year high of 5.5 percent after jumping in May by the most in two decades. Last month, the unemployment rate jumped up from 5 percent in April. The Labor Department report Thursday showed the unemployment rate for workers with unemployment insurance, which tends to track the U. S. jobless rate, increased to 2.4 percent from 2.3 percent. Over the period of six months, payrolls have now declined for a total loss of 438,000 workers and the payroll in the month of April and May was revised to 52,000 more jobs. Any figure above 350,000 indicates that the labor market is weak; the weekly jobless claims has remained above that level since the month of April this year. Labor Department stated that an average hourly earnings moved up by 6 cents to $18.01, which has increased by 3.4 percent from a year earlier.

30.06.2008 21:08 Euro zone inflation leapt to a record 4.0 percent in June 2008 Euro zone inflation leapt to a record 4.0 percent in June, the European Union statistics office said, cementing expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates when it meets on July 3. "We think a hike this week is a done deal", said Stephane Deo, chief European economist at UBS bank. "It`s a bit of a shocker," said Gilles Moec, an economist at Bank of America (nyse: BAC - news - people ) who like many others had predicted a marginally lower figure of 3.9 percent for the annual inflation rate. The inflation-fighting ECB holds a meeting of its Governing Council on Thursday and is widely expected to raise its key interest rate to 4.25 percent from 4.0 percent, even though the economy appears to be slowing markedly. June`s inflation rate of 4.0 percent year-on-year compared with 3.7 percent in May and marked a further departure from the ECB target of just below 2 percent for medium-term inflation. Euro zone interest rate futures extended falls and short-dated bond yields rose after the data. 27.06.2008 20:35 Japan Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 4.0 percent on higher capital spending The Japanese economy grew at a faster pace than previously estimated in the first quarter due to an increase in corporate capital spending, government data showed. Gross domestic product rose 1.0 percent, in real terms, in the three months to March from the fourth quarter of 2007, or an annualised rate of 4.0 percent, according to revised data from the Cabinet Office. It was the fastest pace of growth since January-March 2007 when the economy expanded 1.1 percent on quarter and at an annualised rate of 4.5 percent, the Cabinet Office said. The government reported last month that GDP grew 0.8 percent during the quarter and at annualised 3.3 percent.

Economists had expected annualised growth to come in between 3.7 percent and 4.0 percent. But many are saying the momentum may fizzle in coming quarters and could even contract in the current quarter amid a slowing global economy and high commodity prices. The biggest contributor to the upward revision in GDP was non-residential investment, which accounts for about 15 percent of the world`s second-largest economy. Non-residential investment, which is equivalent to corporate capital spending, rose 0.2 percent, a reversal from the initial estimate of a 0.9 percent fall. Still, that was far slower than the 1.2 percent increase in the last quarter of 2007 as Japanese companies cut back on spending due to higher material costs and sluggish demand at home and abroad. Private consumption, which makes up nearly 55 percent of GDP, rose 0.8 percent in the first quarter, in line with the preliminary reading, thanks to increased spending on heating charges amid the cold weather condition as well as the relatively high growth in wages. Elsewhere, net exports - or the difference between exports and imports - pushed up GDP by 0.5 percentage point, thanks to strong exports to Europe and Asia which more than offset falling shipments to the United States.

Housing investment rose 4.6 percent, the first positive reading in five quarters. It followed a 9.2 percent fall in the fourth quarter, which was the biggest decline since April-June 1997 as the sector reeled from tighter building regulations implemented since last June. The GDP deflator, the broadest gauge of deflation, was down by 1.5 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, compared to the preliminary estimate of a 1.4 percent drop. 23.06.2008 22:23 IMF said US slowdown less than feared The slowdown in the US economy is not as strong as previously estimated, the International Monetary Fund said, lifting its growth estimates slightly for 2008 and 2009. The IMF forecast annual growth of roughly one percent in 2008 and 0.8 percent in 2009, compared with a prior estimate of 0.5 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. "The slowdown in activity in the United States has been less than feared, and recovery should begin next year as important headwinds are overcome," the IMF said in its annual review of the world`s largest economy. In April, the Fund`s economists had predicted the U. S. economy would contract slightly and warned the U. S. credit crisis was threatening to cause a global recession. The IMF praised the Federal Reserve`s handling of the financial crisis and urged the U. S. central bank to keep interest rates low. However, the IMF also said the Federal Reserve may need to act quickly and raise interest rates to counter the threat of inflation. An IMF official, First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky, also said the U. S. may face further fallout from rising fuel and commodity prices.

16.06.2008 22:48 Industrial production up by 0.9% in euro area in April 2008 European industrial production unexpectedly rose in April, as gains in France and Italy countered weakness in Germany, the region`s largest economy. Industrial output in the 15 nations that share the euro jumped 0.9 percent in April from the previous month, the European Union`s statistics office in Luxembourg said. Economists forecast no change in April production, according to the median of 35 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Production may slow in coming months as the euro`s increase against the dollar erodes export competitiveness and global economic growth cools. An index of European manufacturing declined in May, according to figures published June 2. In April, production in France and Italy may have been boosted by the early timing of Easter, which added more working days, according to economists at Lehman Brothers and UniCredit MIB. Industrial production in France jumped 1.4 percent in April from March, the statistics office said today, and production in Italy rose 0.7 percent. In Germany, production fell 0.7 percent. Production of capital goods increased 2 percent in April from the previous month, rebounding from a 1.6 percent drop in March.

Durable consumer goods rose 1.7 percent in the latest month, while energy output fell 1.4 percent. From a year earlier, overall euro-area industrial output rose 3.9 percent. In March, production fell 0.5 percent from the prior month, more than the 0.2 percent drop initially reported. 10.06.2008 22:50 World Bank cuts 2008 global GDP growth forecast due to oil, food prices The World Bank cut its 2008 global growth forecast to 2.7%, citing rising food and oil prices. In January 2008, the bank predicted that global growth would total 3.3% for the year. The global economy grew 3.7% in 2007.

Further, the bank now sees 2008 emerging market GDP growth totaling 6.5%, down from its earlier 7.8% forecast. The bank called high energy and food prices "a major worry" and added that they "are the dominant force behind increased inflation across developing countries". Also, the World Bank expects the U. S. economy to grow 1.1% in 2008, a downward revision from the bank`s earlier 1.9% forecast. Meanwhile, the bank expects Europe`s 15-nation euro zone to grow 1.7%, down from the earlier estimate of 2.8%. Japan`s economy is expected to grow 1.4%, down from the earlier estimate of 2%. Further, the World Bank also sees a considerable slowdown in China`s economy in 2008, but GDP growth is still expected to remain very strong. The bank now sees China`s GDP increasing 9.4%, down from the earlier 11.9% estimate.

The World Bank`s revised GDP growth forecasts for 2008 and 2009 by region are: Euro zone, 1.7% and 1.5%; Europe and Central Asia, 5.8% and 5.4%; South Asia, 6.6% and 7.2%; Latin America, 4.5% and 4.3%; Middle East and North Africa, 5.5% and 5.3%; and Sub-Saharan Africa, 6.3% and 5.6%. 06.06.2008 21:17 Japan`s gdp growth is forecasted to slow in the second quarter Japan`s economy is at a difficult stage as soaring oil prices bite and growth in exports slows somewhat, former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata said on Monday. Iwata also said at his first news conference as head of the Cabinet Office`s Economic and Social Research Institute that the government`s research body would continue its efforts to brush up its method to better calculate gross domestic product (GDP) data amid criticism that GDP figures fluctuate too much after revisions. Iwata, who retired from the central bank in March when his five-year term as one of the two deputy governors expired, declined to comment on the BOJ`s monetary policy. Japan`s industrial production and capital spending are flat and growth in corporate profits is slowing, though at high levels, Iwata said, noting that prices of oil and food prices kept rising.

"Exports have been firm but recently their growth has somewhat slowed," Iwata said. "The economy is at a difficult stage." Iwata said Japan`s economy was gradually overcoming a decade of deflation, although it was too early to say deflation was completely over. Japan`s economic growth is expected to slow to 1.7 percent this year and to 1.5 percent in 2009, compared with 2.1 percent last year, the OECD predicted.

Economists forecast Japan`s GDP will grow 0.3 percent in the second quarter.